Morning Jolt
. . . with Jim Geraghty
. . . with Jim Geraghty
September 12, 2014
The Sneaking Suspicion that Obama Doesn't Really Support His Own Policies
Here's what I fear is going through the president's mind right now:
I don't want to do this. I'm supposed to be the peacemaker president. I didn't become president to start wars.
I've been telling people for years that there is no military solution to the problems in Iraq. Now somehow I've ended up telling people that I have a military solution for that and Syria.
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This assumes that the Sham Legion or
the Fake Brigades or whoever don't just drop their guns and run away,
leaving the Islamic State even more American weapons to use. Why can't
the Iraqis get their act together? We spent years and billions training
the Iraqi army and they collapsed in their first real fight. I just went
out and promised to do more training. Another couple hundred American
soldiers over there, hoping to teach them how to fight. Is
the Islamic State just going to sit and wait while we finish the
training? Here's the first lesson, guys: Stop throwing down your guns
and running away.
Where the hell are our allies? I'm
the exact opposite of Bush. I've talked about the importance of the
multilateral approach until I'm blue in the face. You would think that
in exchange for being consulted early and often, our allies would be
more eager to help. Instead, every time I ask Susan Rice if the Germans are on
board, all I hear is mother-blankers this and mother-blankers that.
She did it while Rahm Emanuel dropped by and he asked her to tone down
her language. It's almost as if most of our allies don't really mean it
when they complain about not being consulted, like they just want to sit
back and wait for somebody else to solve the problem.
Egypt, Jordan, and Turkey have been screaming the loudest about the Islamic State, but now that we're coming to do something, they're tepid and not willing to make commitments. Heck of a job, Kerry. You know who's most warmly welcoming the U.S. arrival? The Assad regime in Damascus. Those
bastards.
I can't shake the feeling the
Islamic State loves the idea of us coming after them. They're probably
going to use some version of the Hamas playbook -- provoke a fight with a
more powerful, more technologically advanced foe, hide among civilians,
play up any civilian casualties, and then declare yourself the winner
once the bombardment ends.
Nobody wants to help. We're trying
to bomb an army, in the kind of "whack-a-mole" policies I used to
criticize. The Democrats in Congress don't want to touch this with a
ten-foot pole. The Republicans will pounce on anything that goes wrong.
The whole thing's a distraction from what I really want to do with my
remaining two years . . .
In short, I think Obama has talked
himself into a policy that he doesn't really want to see through to the
end. Which means that once it starts to go wrong — check Byron York for five ways this could go very wrong
— President Obama will start having doubts. The moment flag-draped
coffins start coming
back to the United States, the public's doubts will start to grow.
Opportunistic politicians will read from Obama's 2004 anti-war playbook.
Read the following and then ask yourself how long until you start hearing the word "quagmire":
In Iraq, dissolved elements of the army will have to regroup and fight with conviction. Political leaders will have to reach compromises on the allocation of power and money in ways that have eluded them for years.Disenfranchised Sunni tribesmen will have to muster the will to join the government's battle. European and Arab allies will have to hang together, Washington will have to tolerate the resurgence of Iranian-backed Shiite militias it once fought, and U.S. commanders will have to orchestrate an air war without ground-level guidance from American combat forces."Harder than anything we've tried to do thus far in Iraq or Afghanistan" is how one U.S. general involved in war planning described the challenges ahead on one side of the border that splits the so-called Islamic State.
But defeating the group in neighboring Syria will be even more difficult, according to U.S. military and diplomatic officials. The strategy imagines weakening the Islamic State without indirectly strengthening the ruthless government led by Bashar al-Assad or a rival network of al-Qaeda affiliated rebels — while simultaneously trying to build up a moderate Syrian opposition.
Then Obama will want to un-do this
policy as quickly as he can. What happens when the United States tries
to withdraw from a war "counterterrorism operation" in Iraq the second
time?
No Executive Amnesty, Ever?
Hmm:
Some Senate Democrats are pressing the White House to hold off indefinitely on unilaterally making immigration changes — not just until after the election.The resistance is coming from Democrats facing tough reelection bids this fall and other moderate voices in the party who say President Barack Obama shouldn't use executive authority to ease deportations at any time. The pressure is a sign that Obama's decision over the weekend to punt on making changes until after the election may have done little to ease the political furor over the issue.Sen. Kay Hagan (D-N.C.), who publicly urged Obama against executive action in July, said this week that she believes such a move is still wrong. When asked whether delaying executive action was not sufficient, Hagan responded: "I don't think it should be by executive action."Maine Senator Angus King, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, said he stands by his statements last week — made before the delay from the White House was announced — that any major executive action on immigration would be a "mistake," no matter the timing."Significant executive action would undermine support for comprehensive reform and actually perhaps could set the cause back," King said. "It's not about the midterms. It's about whether this is a good policy decision, and I don't think it is."
ADDENDA: Go figure. You know what the Islamic State did to America on September 11? Nothing.
. . . Can you stand a bit of whining?
Look, I know I'm a lucky guy in all of the most important ways, and I
should count my blessings. I'm also blessed with a supportive
readership. And as for The Weed Agency,
every few days I check in on Amazon, and it's still at a decent sales
ranking for a book that came out in early June. So whoever you are,
thank you.
But the one thing that didn't happen
with the book that I had hoped was to garner some attention outside of
the conservative media world. I thought the story, tone, and style had
the potential to really reach people who aren't already reading me. I
thought a review in The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, Washingtonian or some other D.C.-centric non-conservative publication was a possibility — and if it happened,
it would be a good thing.
Didn't happen. Some conservative writers
are convinced the book-review world is biased against them. But there
are also other factors: Newspapers themselves are shrinking, the space
for book reviews gets smaller, and each month a ton of books come out
and review copies land on the editor's desk.
Book-review editors undoubtedly have
their own particular tastes. I find the book-review sections to be
dominated by historical nonfiction and a smattering of 'literary
fiction', which is great news if you like those genres.
I had made my peace with it the lack of attention from some book-review sections – even the Post,
where my book made a (short-lived) appearance on the bestseller list,
and the topic — the federal bureaucracy, and life within it — seemed
tailor-made for the that paper's audience.
And then this week the Post reviewed three "office novels", books that "offer a glimpse of the contemporary workplace." Grumble grumble grumble.
In better news, the Jim and Mickey Show is enjoying a warm welcome from the Internet audience. Our second show can be found here, and our third is on the way. Our pop-culture heavy, politics-on-the-side show is now airing on The 405 Media. The second show offers a
discussion of why people are unhealthily obsessed with celebrities, Allen West's new tattoo, and why Sunday Morning political talk shows can be enjoyable if they're done right. Our third show features Mickey demonstrating she knows way too much about Jack the Ripper.
Speaking of Sunday shows, I'm scheduled to appear on Howard Kurtz's Media Buzz on Fox News this Sunday morning.
We need your help to give Harry
Reid a demotion and send Washington a message! Click here to join our
effort, and spread the word to your friends! Visit DemoteReid.com today.
To read more, visit www.nationalreview.com
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