Wednesday, April 23, 2014

OBAMA IS NOT THE MAN FOR THE JOB AND NEITHER IS BIDEN!

Submitted by: Donald Hank


What the West Needs to Do Now to Contain Russia
 
Relative to Russia the West finds itself in a position of weakness with no good alternatives.  In the case of the Crimea, Russia demonstrated how quickly a dictatorship can act when it takes matters into its own hands.  In the space of about three weeks Russia took over almost all the Ukrainian military bases in the Crimea, sponsored a (bogus) referendum on independence, and passed legislation in the Russian parliament annexing the Crimea to the Russian Federation.  Although Russia long maintained that this action was in response to a spontaneous uprising of disadvantaged Russian-speaking Ukrainians, President Putin recently admitted that units of the Russian army were present in the Crimea during the uprising.
 
Now the West finds itself staring at 30,000 or 40,000 Russian troops in a high state of readiness concentrated along the Russian border with the Ukraine.  Although Putin promised German Chancellor Merkel to withdraw some of these troops as a sign of de-escalation, none of these troops has been withdrawn.
 
The West has threatened Russia with the imposition of additional sanctions, which could start to inflict economic pain sometime in the future but for the moment seem almost laughable.  Some of the oligarchs whose travel has been restricted or whose bank accounts have been frozen have seen their names on the sanctions list as a badge of patriotism which improved their personal status in Russia.
 
Russia’s goals in the Ukraine are becoming clearer by the day.  In Moscow old maps are circulating showing the territory called “New Russia”, which was conquered by Catherine the Great in the late 18th century.  Some of the language surrounding this discussion reminds us of the word Lebensraum (living space) as used by the Nazis to justify their expansion to the East, except in this case the expansion is toward the West.  The area covered by the “New Russia” represents about half of the present territory of the Ukraine and includes virtually all of eastern and southern Ukraine and even part of Moldova.  It is very likely that Russia will use the script from its successful Crimean operation to destabilize eastern and southern Ukraine by covertly sending in disciplined, highly trained Special Forces troops (wearing uniforms without national insignia) and taking over strategic points such as military bases, police headquarters and Ukrainian government buildings.  (This has already happened in more than a dozen cities near the Russian border.)  To bring order out of the chaos they themselves have deliberately created, the Russians would take over the south and eastern Ukraine and then supervise a referendum asking the people whether they want federalism and greater autonomy from Kiev but still remain within the present borders of the Ukraine.  If all Ukrainians were asked this question in a national referendum, the majority (including the Russian-speakers) would almost certainly vote to remain in the Ukraine.  However, if the referendum were supervised by the Russians and held only in the areas with a Russian-speaking majority (the East and the South), the referendum would pave the way for these areas to be split off from the Ukraine..
 
NATO vs. EU
In the present climate NATO seems able to speak with a voice somewhat stronger than that of the European Union.  NATO has been willing to send some additional planes and ships to areas near the borders of NATO member countries in the East, it may send troops to Poland and it is increasing its overall readiness.  However, instead of keeping its intentions secret from its adversary, NATO has violated a time-honored principle of warfare by announcing publicly and in advance that it will not defend the Ukraine if it is attacked by Russia, since the Ukraine is not a member of NATO.  The EU can only agree to impose mild economic sanctions unless Russia continues to delay implementing or to ignore the diplomatic agreement signed 17 April 2014 in Geneva.  Perhaps because of the enormous sums German firms have invested in Russia, these companies are putting pressure on the German government not to impose any sanctions.  As a result, Germany has been the EU member which is the most reluctant to impose economic sanctions.  Although the EU, NATO and the UN all roundly condemned Russia for its bogus referendum and illegal annexation of the Crimea, the West has basically already accepted the takeover as a fait accompli and is no longer even trying to use it as a bargaining chip in return for concessions from Russia.
 
What we need to do now
The inability of the Ukrainian government in Kiev to regain control of the occupied police, secret police and government buildings in the East demonstrates the extent to which its authority has been undermined.  This is a situation which practically invites Russia to intervene.  What would Europe look like if Russia invades?
 
  1. There would be an outcry by NATO member countries, particularly Poland and the Baltic States, based on flashbacks to the most horrible periods in their history.
  2. NATO would come under pressure to mobilize and reposition forces so as to offer more protection to NATO members.
  3. The EU and NATO would again be caught off guard and would not be able to react quickly enough. The Cold War would have returned in full force.  Again the cry would be to drastically increase military spending in the NATO countries in order to contain a re-emerging Soviet Union.
  4. The Maidan (Independence Square) activists who successfully ousted President Yanukovitch would be in grave danger.  There are already rumors that Russia is collecting the names of the Maidan leaders with a view to eliminating them if and when a pro-Russia government takes over in the Ukraine.  This would mean that the most Western-oriented Ukrainians, who risked their lives to peacefully demonstrate for freedom of speech and assembly, would be jailed or killed and thereby eliminated as future allies of the West.  Can the West let this happen?
 
Instead of sitting with our hands folded waiting for Russia to strike, I propose that we act pro-actively to keep this from happening.  Russia has a great advantage over NATO in repositioning troops and equipment because of its proximity (the Ukraine is in Russia’s backyard), whereas NATO would have to move forces relatively long distances from Britain, France and other countries.  After years of cutbacks, the U.S. has hardly any combat forces stationed in Europe (especially in Germany), so most of its troops would have to be flown in from the U.S.
 
I propose that we explore the possibility of re-opening some recently closed bases in Germany (and other NATO countries) and begin the mobilization and transfer of units from the Continental U.S.  Compared to the cost of gearing up the whole defense establishment to fight the Cold War again, the cost of the movement of these forces would be relatively small.  For the Russians, having additional American and other NATO troops stationed as close as Germany, and perhaps even on their border with Poland, would have a significant deterrent effect.  The disadvantage is that reactivating bases would take time, and the approval of the host countries, especially after the NSA spying scandal, is far from certain.  However, if the West makes a strong statement that the Ukraine is within its defense perimeter and that it will come to the aid of the Ukraine if it is attacked, it is possible that Russia might postpone its next attempt to expand its territory.  This would give NATO time to move troops and equipment and strengthen its capabilities in Eastern Europe.
 
Recently almost all attention in Eastern Europe has been focused on the Ukraine, but I believe the situation in Moldova is equally dangerous.  Transnistria, a narrow strip of land which runs along the eastern bank of the Dnister River in Moldova, has a large and vocal Russian-speaking element which could easily be manipulated to justify an invasion to “protect” the Russian-speakers.  On 18 March 2014 Transnistria filed an official application to become part of the Russian Federation.  On 17 April 2014 the High Council of Transnistria sent an official request to President Putin to recognize the independence of Transnistria and to approve its annexation by Russia.  According to two members of the Transnistrian parliament, the steps to be taken for the annexation of Transnistria have already been discussed with Russia and would use the takeover of the Crimea as a model.  Since Transnistria is not far from the Black Sea, I propose that the U.S. Navy station warships and hold exercises near the mouth of the Dnister River in order to dissuade Russia from fomenting riots in Transnistria or trying to take over Odessa, the Ukraine’s most important remaining port.  If Transnistria were annexed and Russia increased its troop presence there, Russia could exert irresistible pressure on Moldova which would, in turn, make it a threat to neighboring Romania, a NATO member country closely related ethnically to Moldova. Another proposed step would be to stage a mobilization exercise to reactivate the Selective Service in the U.S. to see if it still functions after such a long period in mothballs.  Any sort of mobilization would show Russia that NATO and the EU are serious about preventing it from taking over any more territory.
 
There is a great deal of similarity between the present situation and that leading up to the outbreak of World War II.  Instead of standing up to Hitler in 1938 and refusing to let him annex the Sudetenland, by their inaction and cowardice the allies gave Hitler additional time to expand and mobilize his army, and their lack of resistance actually encouraged him to take over even more territory.  Like the allies in 1938 we still have an opportunity to stop this dictator before he becomes too strong and before it takes a great war with millions of deaths to stop him later.
 
 
Harold Leaman
 
Response to a correspondent on Ukraine.
 
For what it's worth?
That is a good place to start. What IS a commentary written in the West on Russia and Ukraine worth these days?
Note how the author points out how the Russians didn't do enough to stop the pro-Russians in the East. Yet, did WE do enough to quell the riots and blood shed in Kiev? Did we tell the Urkainians "Ukraine has a democratically elected government. Stop shooting police"?
No, we supported the murders in the street.
Now we are demanding that Russia put an end to disturbances in Western Ukraine to protest the non democratic, unelected regime in Kiev and we are incensed. In Kiev, the West encouraged them to riot.
In the East, Russia has not encouraged anyone to riot. They are taking a hands off approach.
Yet they are the villain in this tagedy?
 
Let's look at what this author says:
"..President Putin recently admitted that units of the Russian army were present in the Crimea during the uprising."
That was not a confession. The author omits to mention that these troops had been stationed there for years under an agreement with Ukraine.
The author also says Putin did not keep a promise to withdraw some troops.
If you read foreign minister Lavrov's TV interview of a few days ago, which I took the pains to translate, you will see that the story of post-Soviet Russia is the story of promises broken, not by Russia but by the West:
The fact is, our foreign policy has failed and is about to cause a disaster, not because we failed to contain Russia but because we pretended they are the enemy and China is an inocuous friend of America.
Yet, China, our 'friend,' has declared a no-go zone in a swath of the Pacific that used to be a go-zone for American ships and planes and have claimed Japanese Senkaku Islands as well as a piece of the Philippines.
Have you read that JOhn Kerry is threatening China with sanctions?
Oh, that's right. He is busy trying to convince foreign minister Lavrov that the Russians are the bad guys and a threat to world peace.
Our government is using the Urkaine crisis, a crisis of its own creation (Soros NGOs were working for years to undermine the government), to hide its failure in diplomacy with China.
We thought we could buy Chinese loyalty with Most Favored Nation status, just as we thought we could buy the loyalty of the Taliban in Afghanistan by arming them to defeat Russia.
China did not vote with the US in the UN on the sanctions against Russia.
We failed to drive a wedge in Sino-Russian relations.
It turns out that, like the Taliban, they were not for sale.
Don
 
 

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