Submitted by Donald Hank
Russia
warns US and the West that military action in Syria would be 'illegal.'
But a strike on Syria may also 'play into Moscow's hands,' says one
expert.
By Fred Weir, Correspondent / August 27, 2013
Moscow
Russian leaders, increasingly convinced that the West is preparing for imminent military action in Syria,
kept up a barrage of criticism Tuesday over what they claim will be an
"illegal" and potentially "catastrophic" intervention into the affairs
of a sovereign state.
A frustrated and increasingly despondent Moscow
has already made clear that it can and will do nothing to stand in the
way of Western military action against Syria, leaving it with few
options beyond diplomatic sniping and rhetorical appeals to global
public opinion. Russia has argued that Western nations are stampeding to judgement
before all the facts are in about last week's alleged nerve gas attack
in a Damascus suburb that may have killed more than 1,000 people.
Russia is also stressing that, absent a UN Security Council
resolution authorizing force, any attack on Syria will be a violation
of international law and a slippery slope that could lead to greater
chaos in the region.
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"Attempts
to bypass the Security Council, to once again create artificial,
unproven excuses for an armed intervention in the region are fraught
with new suffering in Syria and catastrophic consequences for other
countries in the Middle East and Northern Africa," Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich said in a statement posted on the ministry's website Tuesday.
In another sign that military strikes could be just days away, the US
cancelled a bilateral meeting scheduled for Wednesday at which
mid-level US and Russian officials were to have discussed plans for the
projected September Geneva-2 peace conference, at which Russia still
hopes representatives of the Bashar al-Assad
regime – brought to the table by Moscow – will sit down and hammer out a
negotiated settlement with Syrian rebels sponsored by Washington.
"Moscow
perceives Washington’s decision to postpone this meeting literally on
the eve of the agreed-upon date with serious disappointment," Mr. Lukashevich said.
Georgy Mirsky,
an expert with the Center for Development and Modernization with the
official Institute of World Economy and International Relations, says
that Russia fully expects even limited Western military action will
produce unexpected complications, such as civilian casualties, and that
will provide Moscow with an opening to take the lead in restarting
diplomacy.
"There's nothing Russia can or should do to stop Western military intervention in Syria," he says.
"Syria
isn't Libya. Battles are going on everywhere, and it will prove
impossible to set up a secure zone. There is zero chance that Western
forces will launch a ground war. So, it will be limited cruise missile
attacks from ships; that might weaken Assad, but will not likely be
decisive," he says.
"Russia
can sit and watch. A propaganda war will rage, and Moscow will be able
to say that we wanted peace, we were working for the Geneva-2
conference, but it didn't happen because they opted for military force
instead.... As things stand, developments will play into Moscow's hands.
The US will compromise itself with another war in another Arab country,
and look more than ever like a neo-colonialist power. Why would Obama
want this?" he says.
Comment of Donald Hank: <”"Russia
can sit and watch. A propaganda war will rage, and Moscow will be able
to say that we wanted peace, we were working for the Geneva-2
conference, but it didn't happen because they opted for military force
instead.... As things stand, developments will play into Moscow's hands.
The US
will compromise itself with another war in another Arab country, and
look more than ever like a neo-colonialist power. Why would Obama want
this?" he says”>
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